The Helios release pushes tracked decisive WR from 37% toward the 70%+ bar by tightening the gates predictions must clear before emission, and by surfacing more about why each call fired.

Added

• SignalSnapshot.meta — every emission now carries structured metadata about the contributing signals: family weights, raw vs calibrated CF, dampening reasons. The trigger snapshot is no longer an opaque list of votes.
• Observability metrics + /metrics route — Prometheus-format counters and gauges for cycle counts, gate rejections, abstain reasons, per-family CF distribution, and resolver latency. New types in src/metrics/.
• Per-session WR aggregator — predictions are now bucketed into Asian, EU, US, overlap, weekend, and off-hours sessions. WR drift across sessions is tracked and surfaced via a loud IANA timezone label so the operator always knows which session a call belongs to.
• Volatility-adaptive horizon math — composite confidence now scales with realized vol-z over the prediction's horizon. Calm regimes get tighter bands; high-vol regimes get wider ones, and the timer wiring resamples at the right cadence.

Changed

• minConfidence gate — abstain when composite confidence falls below the per-tier floor. Soft gates still resolve and feed the calibrator; strict gates stay silent.
• cycleHealth gate — a cycle aborts when fewer than 4 of 6 signal families return valid data, or when manipulation guard flags the symbol. No more silent low-quality emissions.
• Resolver pipeline — resolvePending() now checks both expired horizons and price-target hits in a single pass, then feeds resolutions to the Platt calibrator and per-rule tracker for online learning.

Fixed

• RANGE in-band grading — when actual price at resolution sits inside the displayed forecast band, the outcome is now always HIT. The persisted band is the authoritative grading criterion.
• Stale predictions — predictions older than 2× their horizon are force-resolved (as sideways or incorrect) when price is unavailable, instead of lingering in pending forever.
• Direction dead zone — probability must exceed 52% (or fall below 48%) for a directional call. Anything in between normalizes to sideways so 50.1% → UP noise stops compounding.

+ SignalSnapshot.meta now carries: rawCf, calibratedCf, weightApplied, dampReason
+ /metrics returns Prometheus text format
+ per-session WR bucketed by IANA timezone
~ minConfidence + cycleHealth gates run before any emission
- range-in-band predictions no longer mis-graded as MISS

Upgrade path: no migration required for hosted users. Self-host operators should pnpm install && pnpm build and restart the Telegram bot. The new signal_snapshot column on chronovisor_predictions is added automatically on first start.